Ledger / Prediction #2598 · token · 6H

Will $DRONE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 12 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9G1mGPKtfT9fgkHzBYGbTdCG933qxEV6x255YSjFpump",
    "name": "Drone Class",
    "symbol": "DRONE",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3649.870908544086,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 12
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 1100,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T21:18:35.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3020.6931889052416,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4476.638055278416,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3649.870908544086,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7299.741817088172
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $DRONE would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,021, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $DRONE (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash81833d69a19430c4ec5bc2294f1933bbc1bb19b939513cbc718379e08ab1e04d

Previous hashfebd22b3ee552008f3c1786ff08df0b544cd2acb771bb24bd28c4406a30acfb0