Ledger / Prediction #2593 · narrative · 24H

Will "nigga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

140 of 3101 launches in the last hour referenced "nigga" (4 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49983067652628055,
      "momentum": -0.5499843402546727,
      "diversity": -0.8657142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.31909499062913976
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigga",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.02613240418118467,
    "share60": 0.04529335912314636,
    "total15": 860,
    "total60": 3101,
    "momentum": 0.5769588453383263,
    "diversity": 0.02857142857142857,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 140,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974044444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998918518518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.31909499062913976
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.102

Log loss0.384

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0019269181059804958,
  "shareRatio": 0.451638789691909,
  "totalAfter": 42555,
  "shareBefore": 0.004282260377822399,
  "totalBefore": 48806,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 82,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 209
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "nigga" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.43% → 0.19% (-55%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "nigga" (24H). diversity contributed -0.87 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf419a2258a274666bf1504a6ede3f32be62e451bd98b6b5e388fb2d45f969ced

Previous hash78a77fb9b77113d11869fddb41ddfa68722d6ed9c8a2a2e6a8a4c3af7fe954c6