Ledger / Prediction #2591 · narrative · 6H

Will "cyber" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

96 of 3101 launches in the last hour referenced "cyber" (47 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.44323654185506034,
      "momentum": -2.8823700609280225,
      "diversity": -0.3125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09742724009666685
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cyber",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0017421602787456446,
    "share60": 0.03110896196002579,
    "total15": 860,
    "total60": 3101,
    "momentum": 0.056001877561336684,
    "diversity": 0.4895833333333333,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 96,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 47
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974044444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995674074074075
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09742724009666685
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.102

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007818608287724785,
  "shareRatio": 0.13270737254406467,
  "totalAfter": 11511,
  "shareBefore": 0.006189002618424185,
  "totalBefore": 16804,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 104
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "cyber" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.62% → 0.08% (-87%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cyber" (6H). momentum contributed -2.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash38ac901195291827fefd7cc18abaa3c872e8987eaddd98319bd406600a83a3fb

Previous hashace08d3f39bd8e8f399d5c43d3dd3d0d221ef366657eff54e8cb80083166c870