Ledger / Prediction #2589 · narrative · 6H

Will "nigga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

140 of 3101 launches in the last hour referenced "nigga" (4 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49983067652628055,
      "momentum": -0.5499843402546727,
      "diversity": -0.8657142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2806766739933959
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigga",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.02613240418118467,
    "share60": 0.04529335912314636,
    "total15": 860,
    "total60": 3101,
    "momentum": 0.5769588453383263,
    "diversity": 0.02857142857142857,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 140,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974044444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995674074074075
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2806766739933959
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.079

Log loss0.329

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008687342541916428,
  "shareRatio": 0.10321684531205033,
  "totalAfter": 11511,
  "shareBefore": 0.008807426803142109,
  "totalBefore": 16804,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 148
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "nigga" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.88% → 0.09% (-90%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "nigga" (6H). diversity contributed -0.87 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1faae1492ae11257de830822750553a76dd1d1a13b60bbf24cf7898071d5adc1

Previous hash195b7891ca2d64e7ff3ff6bbb3dc47ac7c54e00a30574c95b553ea80543d0d2e