Ledger / Prediction #2588 · narrative · 1H

Will "luck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 3101 launches in the last hour referenced "luck" (3 distinct creators, rank #375). Last 15m momentum 3.60×.

Made2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.2817078393087533,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6903396859378883
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "luck",
    "rank60": 375,
    "share15": 0.006387921022067364,
    "share60": 0.0017730496453900709,
    "total15": 860,
    "total60": 3101,
    "momentum": 3.602787456445993,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974044444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974044444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6903396859378883
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 21:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.477

Log loss1.172

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000364963503649635,
  "shareRatio": 0.30934297369904806,
  "totalAfter": 2740,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016087516087516086,
  "totalBefore": 3108,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "luck" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.04% (-77%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "luck" (1H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash195b7891ca2d64e7ff3ff6bbb3dc47ac7c54e00a30574c95b553ea80543d0d2e

Previous hash0c1a4cc7abaf33bb30962ab09bcc7146db049aaaeede075f404e68611081cac4