Ledger / Prediction #2587 · narrative · 1H

Will "cyber" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

96 of 3101 launches in the last hour referenced "cyber" (47 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.44323654185506034,
      "momentum": -2.8823700609280225,
      "diversity": -0.3125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cyber",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0017421602787456446,
    "share60": 0.03110896196002579,
    "total15": 860,
    "total60": 3101,
    "momentum": 0.056001877561336684,
    "diversity": 0.4895833333333333,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 96,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 47
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 361,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974044444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974044444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 21:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000364963503649635,
  "shareRatio": 0.017630946687510512,
  "totalAfter": 2740,
  "shareBefore": 0.03088803088803089,
  "totalBefore": 3108,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "cyber" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.09% → 0.04% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cyber" (1H). momentum contributed -2.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0c1a4cc7abaf33bb30962ab09bcc7146db049aaaeede075f404e68611081cac4

Previous hash3b38275092b000c517589e2586f6a82905874e1de99844a83addbacf6725b1e8