Ledger / Prediction #258 · narrative · 6H

Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (36 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-09 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": -0.3183477830285228,
      "diversity": -0.1918032786885246
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40264531937216286
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memecoin",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.018355359765051395,
    "share60": 0.025235945835043086,
    "total15": 680,
    "total60": 2436,
    "momentum": 0.727349784511061,
    "diversity": 0.5901639344262295,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 399,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971438888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995239814814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40264531937216286
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.162

Log loss0.515

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01320840653263062,
  "shareRatio": 0.577041300894306,
  "totalAfter": 15369,
  "shareBefore": 0.02290881688018086,
  "totalBefore": 13270,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 203,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 304
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "memecoin" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.29% → 1.32% (-42%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "memecoin" (6H). momentum contributed -0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd75cacb66bbc3f37e6a60e7dab138feffeaad5a3f01d256fef8f547f5c1aa2b7

Previous hashe391764e62f71a50becd222c7105b593913b52878a64ae50f2b0d46182654215