GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2573 · narrative · 6H

Will "bullshit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

93 of 2872 launches in the last hour referenced "bullshit" (55 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 3.86×.

Made2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43847423710787337,
      "momentum": 1.3510710241461978,
      "diversity": -0.19032258064516125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6941208255701994
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bullshit",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.1256720430107527,
    "share60": 0.03254437869822485,
    "total15": 743,
    "total60": 2872,
    "momentum": 3.8615591397849465,
    "diversity": 0.5913978494623656,
    "launches15": 93,
    "launches60": 93,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 55
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 356,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998956944444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6941208255701994
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.482
Log loss1.184
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005651998385143318,
  "shareRatio": 0.10325881887372423,
  "totalAfter": 12385,
  "shareBefore": 0.005834092980856883,
  "totalBefore": 16455,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "bullshit" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.58% → 0.06% (-90%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "bullshit" (6H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7672eca7043e4f79c3b42bace0436a0f5725a35cb1cd3d5388a6e7d8f7951a40
Previous hashbeba8ccccaf56535edbc55d545196d6e6d5460b2c2bc560ba397ac21fcac4b45