Ledger / Prediction #2570 · narrative · 1H

Will "plasma" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2872 launches in the last hour referenced "plasma" (16 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

Made2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -2.1850456754153282,
      "diversity": -0.5235294117647059
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0653620800014254
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "plasma",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0020161290322580645,
    "share60": 0.017925513400626522,
    "total15": 743,
    "total60": 2872,
    "momentum": 0.11247259630441592,
    "diversity": 0.3137254901960784,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 356,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993741666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993741666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.0653620800014254
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.068

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003246753246753247,
  "shareRatio": 0.027244968378064113,
  "totalAfter": 3080,
  "shareBefore": 0.01770218674071503,
  "totalBefore": 2881,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that "plasma" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.77% → 0.03% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "plasma" (1H). momentum contributed -2.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9d701baa3b3ae4842ac16d875829de70127ec59d7f632de7e194040dd99cd565

Previous hash7174e3cd01cde0a4cd2c721c731b46f1386c64881136ac195e248f49af6faaef