Ledger / Prediction #2556 · narrative · 1H

Will "smoking" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

15 of 2798 launches in the last hour referenced "smoking" (11 distinct creators, rank #75). Last 15m momentum 0.36×.

Made2026-10-12 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.16479184330021643,
      "momentum": -1.032990784163269,
      "diversity": -0.020000000000000063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23358120850363515
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "smoking",
    "rank60": 75,
    "share15": 0.0019710906701708277,
    "share60": 0.0055376920328688815,
    "total15": 760,
    "total60": 2798,
    "momentum": 0.35594082489084816,
    "diversity": 0.7333333333333333,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 15,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 391,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932577777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932577777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23358120850363515
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.055

Log loss0.266

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.029228358874858633,
  "totalAfter": 3108,
  "shareBefore": 0.005326704545454545,
  "totalBefore": 2816,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 15
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "smoking" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "smoking" (1H). momentum contributed -1.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash83a9d32e81ce7eb59066667c6bcb74f85f57480525f2000e8bca109d387c8b7b

Previous hashbbd5a33fdb677549a6396230acc7fa45f4b8fea7f9d9ce1393b78f61d5209c85