Ledger / Prediction #2555 · narrative · 1H

Will "microcap" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 78% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2798 launches in the last hour referenced "microcap" (38 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.68×.

Made2026-10-12 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.3023841316537679,
      "diversity": -0.0709090909090909
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.784343353447052
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "microcap",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.07293035479632064,
    "share60": 0.01982851018220793,
    "total15": 760,
    "total60": 2798,
    "momentum": 3.6780551905387653,
    "diversity": 0.6909090909090909,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 391,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932577777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932577777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.784343353447052
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.615

Log loss1.534

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001287001287001287,
  "shareRatio": 0.0734658750097798,
  "totalAfter": 3108,
  "shareBefore": 0.01953125,
  "totalBefore": 2816,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 78% that "microcap" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.95% → 0.13% (-93%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "microcap" (1H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "microcap". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbbd5a33fdb677549a6396230acc7fa45f4b8fea7f9d9ce1393b78f61d5209c85

Previous hashcc64a1582ea3c5aa2152fddceabc13728f600222298a6ff2cda672a27e181c87