Will "superintelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
61 of 2798 launches in the last hour referenced "superintelligence" (42 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.47×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3752153927608816,
"momentum": 0.3820200743919768,
"diversity": -0.0737704918032787
},
"rawProbability": 0.5947085402793685
},
"features": {
"term": "superintelligence",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.032194480946123524,
"share60": 0.02197213290460879,
"total15": 760,
"total60": 2798,
"momentum": 1.4652414986699145,
"diversity": 0.6885245901639344,
"launches15": 24,
"launches60": 61,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 42
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 391,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932577777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932577777777778
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5947085402793685
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.003861003861003861,
"shareRatio": 0.18416242380500356,
"totalAfter": 3108,
"shareBefore": 0.02166193181818182,
"totalBefore": 2816,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 61
}Predicted 59% that "superintelligence" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.17% → 0.39% (-82%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "superintelligence" (1H). momentum contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
a45f8547a5ab0b4fa5ac29472c19c3d5d07c66067caa4ecf96bfb86b0b96dcbe56d19ef7e0506ddd51af79785ce09900f511e75d8b5e6755a044fd8f2c38299f