Ledger / Prediction #2547 · narrative · 24H
Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 36% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 2771 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (20 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.
Made2026-10-12 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": -0.5384798383600469,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.3627884542726668
},
"features": {
"term": "wif",
"rank60": 12,
"share15": 0.008527131782945736,
"share60": 0.01461038961038961,
"total15": 644,
"total60": 2771,
"momentum": 0.583634797588286,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 20
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 436,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957258333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998219097222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3627884542726668
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.406
Log loss1.014
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.009905779907392475,
"shareRatio": 1.9311934463273666,
"totalAfter": 43409,
"shareBefore": 0.005124893231391012,
"totalBefore": 48001,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 430,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 246
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 36% that "wif" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.99% (+93%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "wif" (24H). momentum contributed -0.54 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e936fbe562134922d959d6e17067be51c6b637d15d192b625102eaee7790bc68Previous hash
0bc1ba822882786d37545beca8c9946644beade2a155c09cb5b5d869d11677d4