Ledger / Prediction #2542 · narrative · 6H

Will "goonbot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 2771 launches in the last hour referenced "goonbot" (28 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.45×.

Made2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.8961190732254264,
      "diversity": -0.2660377358490566
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5960290905056227
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "goonbot",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.047286821705426356,
    "share60": 0.0193001443001443,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2771,
    "momentum": 2.450076070419474,
    "diversity": 0.5283018867924528,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 436,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957258333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992876388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5960290905056227
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.355

Log loss0.906

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001446340757882557,
  "shareRatio": 0.052661572111790074,
  "totalAfter": 13828,
  "shareBefore": 0.0034015748031496064,
  "totalBefore": 15875,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "goonbot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.01% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "goonbot" (6H). momentum contributed +0.90 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash48994604c2d0cb168979d6a3c4de233a545d02bd30ac3e7b7aa8a68e9138cfb7

Previous hasha0ba993fbc55257a2b9b15babecf159bae1f6b0dfebbd08025a192b108037ce4