Ledger / Prediction #2539 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2771 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (41 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.00×.

Made2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 1.09779115819909,
      "diversity": -0.0661016949152542
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7506167613953362
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.06434108527131784,
    "share60": 0.021464646464646464,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2771,
    "momentum": 2.9975376196990426,
    "diversity": 0.6949152542372882,
    "launches15": 41,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 436,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957258333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957258333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7506167613953362
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.563

Log loss1.389

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015272474835126693,
  "shareRatio": 0.7214294461712514,
  "totalAfter": 2881,
  "shareBefore": 0.021230658510255487,
  "totalBefore": 2779,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 44,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.12% → 1.53% (-28%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +1.10 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "inu". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0e6d8d425e3d4d0e5b3be19586aaf4add9f76511b35c6602c7f20098ec9e499b

Previous hash1ed040634284193651d26d7e736721592a4871d8cf02f9f2e663845c404a6841