Ledger / Prediction #2538 · narrative · 1H

Will "marsx" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 2771 launches in the last hour referenced "marsx" (36 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": -1.1404919247465004,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2230888402742212
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "marsx",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0069767441860465115,
    "share60": 0.021825396825396824,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2771,
    "momentum": 0.319661733615222,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 436,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957258333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957258333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2230888402742212
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.050

Log loss0.252

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010413051023950017,
  "shareRatio": 0.48628993869041814,
  "totalAfter": 2881,
  "shareBefore": 0.021590500179920834,
  "totalBefore": 2779,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "marsx" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.16% → 1.04% (-52%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "marsx" (1H). momentum contributed -1.14 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1ed040634284193651d26d7e736721592a4871d8cf02f9f2e663845c404a6841

Previous hashb12ed47d9939ec46288748cf4b97152343e1768ec710100caa405839ba6873d8