Will "stay" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 2537 launches in the last hour referenced "stay" (10 distinct creators, rank #65). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -1.210648658689408,
      "diversity": -0.1941176470588235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23960614915062703
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stay",
    "rank60": 65,
    "share15": 0.002054794520547945,
    "share60": 0.006895193065405832,
    "total15": 729,
    "total60": 2537,
    "momentum": 0.2980039138943248,
    "diversity": 0.5882352941176471,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 386,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997097685185186
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23960614915062703
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001246710070646904,
  "shareRatio": 0.3856942194716709,
  "totalAfter": 14438,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032898980776673976,
  "totalBefore": 15502,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity