Ledger / Prediction #2523 · narrative · 1H
Will "rate" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
63 of 2537 launches in the last hour referenced "rate" (4 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.42×.
Made2026-10-12 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3800545220936148,
"momentum": 1.230213764975606,
"diversity": -0.8238095238095238
},
"rawProbability": 0.6192718533682967
},
"features": {
"term": "rate",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.08561643835616438,
"share60": 0.025019700551615447,
"total15": 729,
"total60": 2537,
"momentum": 3.421960953510948,
"diversity": 0.06349206349206349,
"launches15": 62,
"launches60": 63,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 386,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982586111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6192718533682967
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.384
Log loss0.966
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.012073863636363636,
"shareRatio": 0.49046145589628776,
"totalAfter": 2816,
"shareBefore": 0.024783634933123525,
"totalBefore": 2542,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 34,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 63
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "rate" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.48% → 1.21% (-51%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "rate" (1H). momentum contributed +1.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1d9054fdd7b7d3dc0b83e9fc676e42f5c11413a870169470c2eba1288ec5a84ePrevious hash
081f6eb74cb99d1c52f12f571525be79b50e8f910f9c7c0f2d50ca13a7a9c569