Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2537 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (42 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": -1.1518081586664743,
      "diversity": -0.28536585365853656
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21122089827134324
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usepaid",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.010273972602739725,
    "share60": 0.03250591016548463,
    "total15": 729,
    "total60": 2537,
    "momentum": 0.3160647571606476,
    "diversity": 0.5121951219512195,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 386,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982586111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21122089827134324
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008522727272727272,
  "shareRatio": 0.26808446552855497,
  "totalAfter": 2816,
  "shareBefore": 0.03225806451612903,
  "totalBefore": 2542,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity