Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
55 of 2488 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (29 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.54×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35968429091975557,
"momentum": 0.9307536484851603,
"diversity": -0.26727272727272733
},
"rawProbability": 0.6025773340961079
},
"features": {
"term": "usepaid",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.056557377049180325,
"share60": 0.022298111691442347,
"total15": 609,
"total60": 2488,
"momentum": 2.536420026583961,
"diversity": 0.5272727272727272,
"launches15": 34,
"launches60": 55,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 431,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9924369444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987394907407408
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6025773340961079
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.009823443515199787,
"shareRatio": 1.3769028571604969,
"totalAfter": 15066,
"shareBefore": 0.007125258040886995,
"totalBefore": 15017,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 148,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 107
}Predicted 60% that "usepaid" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.98% (+38%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "usepaid" (6H). momentum contributed +0.93 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
9ed900f06c257962f139c352f5448fed59fccdfb89f0932e39bcf54cd711f8554d8eb9052f50115dc0616eec791a3a9f923769819521e65ef68c06a09f91b2af