Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2488 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (64 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": 0.20992658696820934,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6439026410694595
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.031967213114754096,
    "share60": 0.025914021695460025,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2488,
    "momentum": 1.2335874952344643,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 64
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 431,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924369444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924369444444444
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6439026410694595
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013314141777617848,
  "shareRatio": 0.5220010038480843,
  "totalAfter": 2779,
  "shareBefore": 0.02565130260521042,
  "totalBefore": 2495,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity