Ledger / Prediction #2505 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

114 of 2488 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (56 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.

Made2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46901408039405923,
      "momentum": -0.020211473121533693,
      "diversity": -0.3105263157894737
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4596569640876937
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.045081967213114756,
    "share60": 0.04600241060666935,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2488,
    "momentum": 0.9799914095497172,
    "diversity": 0.49122807017543857,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 114,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 56
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 431,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924369444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924369444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4596569640876937
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.211

Log loss0.616

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03490464195753868,
  "shareRatio": 0.7645377148063208,
  "totalAfter": 2779,
  "shareBefore": 0.045691382765531065,
  "totalBefore": 2495,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 97,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 114
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.57% → 3.49% (-24%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.31 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc412fb2b2154c3f813d5ca8f63878f076522033c310ec6f803808337d054b1a1

Previous hashd0c2c5566cae7b464ec864ee876e1c975022d849c26bbbace1dca6f10f570951