GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2501 · token · 1H

Will $SpaceXSI still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 12m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "intelligence". Creator launched 12 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5Cmn2umxuhfJdJTpoShW4x66fiCS7RsrRfKmZCqypump",
    "name": "SpaceX Super Intelligence",
    "symbol": "SpaceXSI",
    "hotTerms": [
      "intelligence",
      "elon"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 12,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 23,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2959.5469973017484,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 12
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 950,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.031
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T17:37:23.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 74.63959876205034,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5288.477072208785,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2959.5469973017484,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5919.093994603497
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $SpaceXSI would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $75, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $SpaceXSI (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash63bee3020e2d867e3031c928f980180f9444fce2b5c902f00baecb4bbad58ea3
Previous hashe4618e64900d4c6a78fb8937849bd2a1f720ee2189ef4d5232a19e8968fb4503