Ledger / Prediction #2501 · token · 1H
Will $SpaceXSI still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 12m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "intelligence". Creator launched 12 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-12 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0.3,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
},
"features": {
"mint": "5Cmn2umxuhfJdJTpoShW4x66fiCS7RsrRfKmZCqypump",
"name": "SpaceX Super Intelligence",
"symbol": "SpaceXSI",
"hotTerms": [
"intelligence",
"elon"
],
"ageMinutes": 12,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 23,
"marketCapAtObservation": 2959.5469973017484,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 12
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 950,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 18:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.031
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T17:37:23.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 74.63959876205034,
"athMarketCapUsd": 5288.477072208785,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 2959.5469973017484,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 5919.093994603497
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 3% that $SpaceXSI would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $75, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $SpaceXSI (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
63bee3020e2d867e3031c928f980180f9444fce2b5c902f00baecb4bbad58ea3Previous hash
e4618e64900d4c6a78fb8937849bd2a1f720ee2189ef4d5232a19e8968fb4503