Will "groksey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "groksey" (63 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": -2.108394916824311,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26616452988401484
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "groksey",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.002572898799313894,
    "share60": 0.021187854521187856,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.12143271970935023,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 63
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998118287037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26616452988401484
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000045493835585278195,
  "shareRatio": 0.042524126856137615,
  "totalAfter": 43962,
  "shareBefore": 0.001326762699014405,
  "totalBefore": 47484,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity