Will "selfie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "selfie" (12 distinct creators, rank #57). Last 15m momentum 4.39×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": 1.4789558757512766,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6802302244857085
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "selfie",
    "rank60": 57,
    "share15": 0.030017152658662092,
    "share60": 0.006840173506840174,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 4.388361293561477,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992473148148148
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6802302244857085
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00012879958784131891,
  "shareRatio": 0.11633623323160916,
  "totalAfter": 15528,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013501653952609194,
  "totalBefore": 14813,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 20
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity