Ledger / Prediction #2490 · narrative · 1H

Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

78 of 2996 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (75 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

Made2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 17:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41209063713832367,
      "momentum": -1.2218413470459177,
      "diversity": 0.2538461538461539
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29819571083969704
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bot",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.007718696397941681,
    "share60": 0.02619285952619286,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2996,
    "momentum": 0.294687045918869,
    "diversity": 0.9615384615384616,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 78,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 75
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954838888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954838888888888
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29819571083969704
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.089

Log loss0.354

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004720692368214005,
  "shareRatio": 0.1882900731619958,
  "totalAfter": 2542,
  "shareBefore": 0.02594810379241517,
  "totalBefore": 3006,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 78
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "bot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.59% → 0.47% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bot" (1H). momentum contributed -1.22 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5a2836d5a8ac19d1eac7cd985958b925abfe824e8cf984ce51d50066e076854e

Previous hash9b90fc2c157c08d98521e0e3597a0f3488907a5e52bb0c77f6ccb0b45701c814