Ledger / Prediction #2484 · narrative · 24H

Will "bird" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2991 launches in the last hour referenced "bird" (5 distinct creators, rank #305). Last 15m momentum 1.15×.

Made2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.1377419251608661,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4797288580130477
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bird",
    "rank60": 305,
    "share15": 0.002109704641350211,
    "share60": 0.001838235294117647,
    "total15": 710,
    "total60": 2991,
    "momentum": 1.1476793248945147,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 350,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999048032407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4797288580130477
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.230

Log loss0.653

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007695093246424045,
  "shareRatio": 0.4882480120085103,
  "totalAfter": 44184,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015886464732048295,
  "totalBefore": 47210,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "bird" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.08% (-52%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "bird" (24H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash530fb4c87cf36a772570743df2fad43f56294ec61011479aee8b00aa22e71b15

Previous hash6c9f06ecc0c0c64fe4ea20f3e3b855ff09fa9d124f543039b2f947818758ea02