Will "ethstr" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2501 launches in the last hour referenced "ethstr" (52 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -3.1570514428598617,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11364415312588069
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ethstr",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.0008928571428571428,
    "share60": 0.020983213429256596,
    "total15": 559,
    "total60": 2501,
    "momentum": 0.04255102040816326,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 410,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996527777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999421296296296
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11364415312588069
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.007785588859724799,
  "totalAfter": 15565,
  "shareBefore": 0.004086765168186105,
  "totalBefore": 12724,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity