Ledger / Prediction #2478 · narrative · 6H

Will "crying" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

283 of 2991 launches in the last hour referenced "crying" (128 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

Made2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.6054013477813706,
      "momentum": -0.5858462809003147,
      "diversity": -0.357243816254417
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36902959291840215
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crying",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.052742616033755275,
    "share60": 0.09475267379679145,
    "total15": 710,
    "total60": 2991,
    "momentum": 0.556634593202807,
    "diversity": 0.45229681978798586,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 283,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 128
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 350,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999619212962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36902959291840215
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.136

Log loss0.460

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003579277864992151,
  "shareRatio": 0.17593829585787368,
  "totalAfter": 15925,
  "shareBefore": 0.02048814025438295,
  "totalBefore": 14545,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 57,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 298
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "crying" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.05% → 0.36% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "crying" (6H). momentum contributed -0.59 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashac28e065d9d286e9ca08a5d219cd149bdc4ae93568e90242e64f84d7458fde5a

Previous hash3b4b80afd76b97371a5ca309421c8757faab00349614bdb28372f386cb002854