Will "casino" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

498 of 2991 launches in the last hour referenced "casino" (161 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.6901743246885829,
      "momentum": -0.7055519258729553,
      "diversity": -0.5120481927710843
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33867643277709364
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "casino",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.08227848101265822,
    "share60": 0.16661096256684493,
    "total15": 710,
    "total60": 2991,
    "momentum": 0.49383593819432975,
    "diversity": 0.3232931726907631,
    "launches15": 58,
    "launches60": 498,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 161
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 350,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999619212962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33867643277709364
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00728414442700157,
  "shareRatio": 0.2020991196343869,
  "totalAfter": 15925,
  "shareBefore": 0.03616363011344104,
  "totalBefore": 14545,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 116,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 526
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity