Ledger / Prediction #2475 · narrative · 1H

Will "avgo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

115 of 2991 launches in the last hour referenced "avgo" (30 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47032413238937243,
      "momentum": -1.8081682238944472,
      "diversity": -0.5869565217391304
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09754538770534317
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "avgo",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.006329113924050633,
    "share60": 0.03860294117647059,
    "total15": 710,
    "total60": 2991,
    "momentum": 0.16395418927064495,
    "diversity": 0.2608695652173913,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 115,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 350,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9977152777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09754538770534317
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.010

Log loss0.103

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004008016032064128,
  "shareRatio": 0.015598984348984352,
  "totalAfter": 2495,
  "shareBefore": 0.03837170503837171,
  "totalBefore": 2997,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "avgo" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.84% → 0.04% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "avgo" (1H). momentum contributed -1.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2bdcc890bcde79b04c5838aff6f7492e5932a1a0acd9055048a42863774ce3f2

Previous hash4a5b2a94c2875cacaf75d7ecdd5405c778b792566fbf7a7524e8cc7ec6919627