Will "put" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

90 of 2791 launches in the last hour referenced "put" (10 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43355576368442467,
      "momentum": -2.1543326956053166,
      "diversity": -0.7666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17599488587083015
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "put",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0037593984962406013,
    "share60": 0.03241404011461318,
    "total15": 664,
    "total60": 2791,
    "momentum": 0.11598055913263823,
    "diversity": 0.1111111111111111,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 90,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999840162037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17599488587083015
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018817625842872823,
  "shareRatio": 0.3117811391780926,
  "totalAfter": 44639,
  "shareBefore": 0.006060735854713667,
  "totalBefore": 46694,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 283
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity