Will "lmao" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

13 of 2791 launches in the last hour referenced "lmao" (4 distinct creators, rank #84). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.14332671675411546,
      "momentum": -1.8611104427779201,
      "diversity": -0.5307692307692308
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13308105903002349
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lmao",
    "rank60": 84,
    "share15": 0.0007518796992481203,
    "share60": 0.004835243553008596,
    "total15": 664,
    "total60": 2791,
    "momentum": 0.15549986076301867,
    "diversity": 0.3076923076923077,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 13,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999360648148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13308105903002349
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007886913789965419,
  "shareRatio": 0.4384251395292405,
  "totalAfter": 16483,
  "shareBefore": 0.0018315018315018315,
  "totalBefore": 13650,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 25
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity