Ledger / Prediction #2460 · narrative · 1H

Will "dogs" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 2791 launches in the last hour referenced "dogs" (5 distinct creators, rank #106). Last 15m momentum 0.91×.

Made2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -0.09132988026864028,
      "diversity": -0.35454545454545455
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.348053402199736
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dogs",
    "rank60": 106,
    "share15": 0.0037593984962406013,
    "share60": 0.0041189111747851,
    "total15": 664,
    "total60": 2791,
    "momentum": 0.9127165740438052,
    "diversity": 0.45454545454545453,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.348053402199736
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.121

Log loss0.428

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000998003992015968,
  "shareRatio": 0.2827894333511661,
  "totalAfter": 3006,
  "shareBefore": 0.003938417472252059,
  "totalBefore": 2793,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "dogs" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.10% (-75%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dogs" (1H). diversity contributed -0.35 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5c592f00f8f096ffcdfafe2cd2df5a6c9cc5b38b490cc4a17b66c1be0ffc5c56

Previous hashb7b82c4635db49ffd5fd44ee5fd4c989452a1633029f7930fceae9a173fd0f9b