Ledger / Prediction #2447 · narrative · 6H
Will "ticket" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
92 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "ticket" (92 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.28×.
Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.436852599692241,
"momentum": 1.1884492076637072,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.740335157133124
},
"features": {
"term": "ticket",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.11490683229813664,
"share60": 0.0350113550340651,
"total15": 804,
"total60": 2641,
"momentum": 3.2819875776397516,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 92,
"launches60": 92,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 92
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 318,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989643981481482
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.740335157133124
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.548
Log loss1.348
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00029906094862132903,
"shareRatio": 0.046235575569940894,
"totalAfter": 16719,
"shareBefore": 0.007077086979681912,
"totalBefore": 13141,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 93
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 74% that "ticket" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.03% (-96%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "ticket" (6H). momentum contributed +1.19 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
8f039f530856641ad917a01bfb8b3a83d0261b2a73079c6e6220ed33bae34895Previous hash
f53f9bf90b99e9812d2a724f69c8490743117d8b5bc193604d56ba9886e2ae06