Ledger / Prediction #2441 · narrative · 1H

Will "project" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 84% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

134 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "project" (134 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.21×.

Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4932602831275216,
      "momentum": 1.1658918602396326,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.8401241555566681
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "project",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.16335403726708075,
    "share60": 0.05090840272520818,
    "total15": 804,
    "total60": 2641,
    "momentum": 3.208783393751876,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 131,
    "launches60": 134,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 134
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9937863888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.8401241555566681
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.706

Log loss1.833

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001334668001334668,
  "shareRatio": 0.02979681621700712,
  "totalAfter": 2997,
  "shareBefore": 0.0502060696890221,
  "totalBefore": 2669,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 134
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 84% that "project" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.02% → 0.13% (-97%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "project" (1H). momentum contributed +1.17 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 84% and wrong on "project". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashac686a39a5c659dee075d0fde4b49e225e5b9a5a51be95f70d3985a7e6239646

Previous hash062c09969df97a5fc1b9ff857a584ce5c989620d3aa4ed6ef3e2c18acc5a8119