Will "watermelon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2520 launches in the last hour referenced "watermelon" (29 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.74×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.2954814591794176,
      "diversity": -0.35625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39301475147596554
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "watermelon",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.01903973509933775,
    "share60": 0.025585085283617613,
    "total15": 603,
    "total60": 2520,
    "momentum": 0.7441732121772164,
    "diversity": 0.453125,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998571412037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39301475147596554
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006011622470108877,
  "shareRatio": 0.37736249410880096,
  "totalAfter": 44913,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016116737449635196,
  "totalBefore": 45915,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 74
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity