GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2431 · narrative · 6H

Will "rape" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2520 launches in the last hour referenced "rape" (27 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 4.17×.

Made2026-10-12 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.4288367292531048,
      "diversity": -0.3109090909090909
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6757543797089746
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rape",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.09188741721854304,
    "share60": 0.022015073383577947,
    "total15": 603,
    "total60": 2520,
    "momentum": 4.1738410596026485,
    "diversity": 0.4909090909090909,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994285648148148
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6757543797089746
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.457
Log loss1.126
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009408997353719495,
  "shareRatio": 0.1792583009918068,
  "totalAfter": 17005,
  "shareBefore": 0.0053728949478749,
  "totalBefore": 12470,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 68% that "rape" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.54% → 0.09% (-82%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "rape" (6H). momentum contributed +1.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashee00de05dbcd08216fd50a50be8abd3bab9bb4c094d668c28fc0a233c26dc786
Previous hashaa124094f9e7d98ddc3cffea58ec10c603af155006cac33355c56a483e7c11bd