Ledger / Prediction #2427 · narrative · 1H

Will "robot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 77% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2520 launches in the last hour referenced "robot" (31 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 4.17×.

Made2026-10-12 15:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 1.428836729253105,
      "diversity": -0.26949152542372873
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7737415780805017
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "robot",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.09850993377483444,
    "share60": 0.02360174533915113,
    "total15": 603,
    "total60": 2520,
    "momentum": 4.173841059602649,
    "diversity": 0.5254237288135594,
    "launches15": 59,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965713888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7737415780805017
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.599

Log loss1.486

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0028643036161833156,
  "shareRatio": 0.1277235161532682,
  "totalAfter": 2793,
  "shareBefore": 0.023631350925561245,
  "totalBefore": 2539,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 77% that "robot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.36% → 0.29% (-88%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "robot" (1H). momentum contributed +1.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "robot". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashde14b0909ce9e4fb2927a412c67ff7b804d95937f9fffd7dd1dc345314997e2c

Previous hash7b2e643d658cc30b8e2e0b164c23439ee58262bf1e333b6318c520926d4a3b64