Ledger / Prediction #2420 · narrative · 24H
Will "left" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "left" (5 distinct creators, rank #325). Last 15m momentum 1.66×.
Made2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.5042566259147138,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5255099093211563
},
"features": {
"term": "left",
"rank60": 325,
"share15": 0.0034626038781163434,
"share60": 0.002091254752851711,
"total15": 721,
"total60": 2629,
"momentum": 1.6557542180810878,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 342,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999618171296296
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5255099093211563
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.276
Log loss0.745
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012681038510311687,
"shareRatio": 0.9667785142352845,
"totalAfter": 44949,
"shareBefore": 0.0013122498523718915,
"totalBefore": 45723,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 57,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 60
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "left" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.13% (-3%). PARTIAL.
— "left" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c06aa14a3df28dce4883f503034b8a038dfc6e235e2e58cfbc9bc991ee0360ebPrevious hash
f294658b2137d7343c84f8b3ac02b1e063aeff0d65c5821a33d0a52e9e10ba9f