Will "chat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

83 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "chat" (43 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.60×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42141040430437465,
      "momentum": 1.2806656477628096,
      "diversity": -0.2783132530120482
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6674410555902172
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.11426592797783934,
    "share60": 0.0317490494296578,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 3.599034617745119,
    "diversity": 0.5180722891566265,
    "launches15": 82,
    "launches60": 83,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998472685185186
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6674410555902172
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008875214484350038,
  "shareRatio": 0.12664739591257165,
  "totalAfter": 16901,
  "shareBefore": 0.007200198626168997,
  "totalBefore": 12083,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 87
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity