GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2410 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

108 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (67 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.

Made2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4609039972035179,
      "momentum": 0.08720390263416158,
      "diversity": -0.15555555555555559
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5231215835917685
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.045013850415512466,
    "share60": 0.04125475285171103,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 1.091119139104127,
    "diversity": 0.6203703703703703,
    "launches15": 32,
    "launches60": 108,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 67
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990836111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5231215835917685
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.227
Log loss0.648
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.04196328212813788,
  "shareRatio": 1.023274478330658,
  "totalAfter": 2669,
  "shareBefore": 0.04100227790432802,
  "totalBefore": 2634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 112,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 108
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.10% → 4.20% (+2%). PARTIAL.

— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3cf7e42b44fdb7093e6eee80e4b3f826c9337ec867ddfbdfd207635cfaad1d76
Previous hash130875ff220ff6f55a0021e15b000ee2a050a7326f123cc2f9ca6130903aecae