Will "edog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "edog" (8 distinct creators, rank #124). Last 15m momentum 0.18×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -1.7335368173933658,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.25260206483353476
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "edog",
    "rank60": 124,
    "share15": 0.00078003120124805,
    "share60": 0.004415475189234651,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2377,
    "momentum": 0.17665849491122504,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 288,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996950925925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.25260206483353476
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00017698723479569035,
  "shareRatio": 0.742482537325205,
  "totalAfter": 45201,
  "shareBefore": 0.0002422587323261243,
  "totalBefore": 45406,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity