Ledger / Prediction #2389 · token · 1H

Will $MetaMask still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DU2pf91EAxrsuWaMXfYhNGUZbScTQGHPD6yiDU1QVv3k",
    "name": "MM Coin",
    "symbol": "MetaMask",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 30,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 394181.3791675449,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 741,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.818

Log loss2.345

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:32.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1396817.929743548,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 1396148.824443696,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 394181.3791675449,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 788362.7583350898
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $MetaMask would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $1,396,818, graduated). INCORRECT.

— twitter was right but too weak on $MetaMask (1H). twitter contributed +0.40 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on $MetaMask (1H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

— Overconfident: 90% and wrong on $MetaMask. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

3 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash25f8688131601cdc273b84a08a0a08ef17248e6c73b4ddc6a7f98c30807d73c0

Previous hash8cbdca8a051493d88fab8206daff02412e2a85b897069ed3582b0b81093c1a40