Will "chains" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "chains" (5 distinct creators, rank #161). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.13113513834644144,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4105334115092146
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chains",
    "rank60": 161,
    "share15": 0.0028625954198473282,
    "share60": 0.0032637075718015664,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.8770992366412215,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 290,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999786087962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4105334115092146
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005484380484380484,
  "shareRatio": 0.3721589704215568,
  "totalAfter": 45584,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014920055226473076,
  "totalBefore": 44906,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity