GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2387 · narrative · 24H

Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (32 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.

Made2026-10-12 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.42093344395359805,
      "diversity": -0.08297872340425534
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5092565889975416
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "privacy",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.03148854961832061,
    "share60": 0.020670147954743257,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 1.5233828846926474,
    "diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 290,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999786087962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5092565889975416
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.241
Log loss0.675
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029176904176904175,
  "shareRatio": 1.4694347780529098,
  "totalAfter": 45584,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019819177838150803,
  "totalBefore": 44906,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 133,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "privacy" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.29% (+47%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "privacy" (24H). momentum contributed +0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1bd5cf62efae52a4081da89575d6c1547134e300831603db9f5d267fcfd96ae0
Previous hash7b500bda1d71b0acef9878d2c7ccba2438caddff32df830dff2bf112b6c4c3aa