Will "shadow" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "shadow" (22 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 4.39×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.4783027740876589,
      "diversity": -0.42
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6008465222876901
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "shadow",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.10591603053435114,
    "share60": 0.024151436031331592,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 4.385496183206107,
    "diversity": 0.4,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 290,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999786087962963
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6008465222876901
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011626886626886627,
  "shareRatio": 0.8046454614188577,
  "totalAfter": 45584,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014474680443593284,
  "totalBefore": 44906,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity