Ledger / Prediction #2383 · narrative · 6H

Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (32 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.

Made2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.42093344395359805,
      "diversity": -0.08297872340425534
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5428552977209503
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "privacy",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.03148854961832061,
    "share60": 0.020670147954743257,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 1.5233828846926474,
    "diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 290,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991443518518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5428552977209503
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.295

Log loss0.783

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003099361896080219,
  "shareRatio": 0.6727637335926105,
  "totalAfter": 16455,
  "shareBefore": 0.004607046070460705,
  "totalBefore": 11070,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 51,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "privacy" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.46% → 0.31% (-33%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "privacy" (6H). momentum contributed +0.42 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0e28220672f61110d522e14025c1a6bca943441a5729f79294d9f39db3ad4ce4

Previous hasha42f59530b4a9670bc14faf2ab1621eb6be3d7307f6fb6992ae86dce39dbaa1d