Ledger / Prediction #2374 · token · 6H

Will $NEWTON still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "AEWdireSEwGXJKTehNjiMkHNzMTA52bUvwQ9yDnapump",
    "name": "Baton Bro NEWTON",
    "symbol": "NEWTON",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 13,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3169.853765118389,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 797,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 19:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T13:46:07.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2843.1095592830393,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3169.853765118389,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3169.853765118389,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6339.707530236778
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $NEWTON would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,843, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $NEWTON (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf532f1c5df32c0dcf500bff936baebe9034c9c3543c705d879a8f6e247c19432

Previous hashdf4c236dddf768362789791798efd33a54e8af32ccb6ebcb4cc1fd1aec212df3