Ledger / Prediction #2372 · narrative · 24H

Will "bear" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 2226 launches in the last hour referenced "bear" (11 distinct creators, rank #85). Last 15m momentum 1.35×.

Made2026-10-12 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": 0.2965187526600365,
      "diversity": 0.19999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5034798267223948
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bear",
    "rank60": 85,
    "share15": 0.007550335570469799,
    "share60": 0.005612932195779075,
    "total15": 595,
    "total60": 2226,
    "momentum": 1.3451677852348993,
    "diversity": 0.9166666666666666,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9970811111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998783796296297
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5034798267223948
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.247

Log loss0.686

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004546746234725774,
  "shareRatio": 2.877543768917232,
  "totalAfter": 45747,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015726449641661612,
  "totalBefore": 44511,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 208,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "bear" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.45% (+189%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bear" (24H). momentum contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash61f8293cd145b47c8b9e1c06cb3197598e5664b057ac00fca81f94d3107cf5de

Previous hash55e9715b27f1cf12edc4f473ada8a898bff95c6ff777693925f97dcafa037ff7